The investment grade market had a strong second quarter, as traders bid up Treasuries in anticipation of Fed rate cuts. The current environment looks favorable for risk assets, and we are constructive on investment grade credit. However, we are neutral on mortgages and defensive on rates.
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The second quarter featured an unusual combination of rallies in both “risk-on” and “risk-off” assets. Who should we believe – the equity bulls or the bond bears? A compelling case can be made for either, but we’re expecting more of the same – the slow-growth recovery will continue, and the economy will keep muddling through.
The stock market extended its gains during the second quarter, as the recovery continued to grind ahead. In our view, structural changes in the economy have fundamentally changed the business cycle, and we expect the expansionary phase to last longer and be less inflationary than in the past.
If you wish to receive historical investment outlooks, please contact us.
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